French election: How dominant will Macron party be?

Emmanuel Macron is enjoying a honeymoon period as president - but will it last?

First he swept aside all his political rivals to claim the presidency, now President Emmanuel Macron's team of largely unknown candidates is poised to form a sweeping majority in parliament.

Never elected before, he leads a brand new political party.
La République en Marche (LREM) party won almost a third of votes in the first round of parliamentary elections and seeks a mandate to push through the sweeping changes he promises.

How big will his majority be?

With 32.32% of the vote, even if it was on a low turnout, LREM crushed its rivals on both the right and left.
Ahead in 400 constituencies out of the 577 that make up France's National Assembly, the party is heading for a convincing majority far higher than the 289 seats needed to control parliament. That does not even take into account the 100-odd seats where Mr Macron's centrist MoDem allies are in the lead.
His centrist alliance could control 415 to 455 seats after the second round on 18 June, experts predict. His first-round success is even more impressive than the first round of the presidential election, which he won with 24.1% of the vote.

In other words, a party that only began life in April 2016 will now have complete control of France's lower house of parliament with its mix of largely unknown figures, most of whom are completely new to politics. And that means the president should have little difficulty in steering through his broad programme of reform.
The centre-right Republican vote held up, with 21.56% of the vote, and they are now projected to win a maximum of 110 seats in the new assembly.
The Socialists, who ran the last government, failed to reach 10% and will struggle to form an alliance of more than 40 seats. They were outvoted by the far-left La France Insoumise (France unbowed), which attracted 11% of the electorate.
The far-right National Front, with 13.2%, will win only a handful of seats. Leader Marine Le Pen is expected to enter parliament for the first time, but with her authority weakened by a poor electoral performance.

How does the election work?

Just like the presidential poll, the National Assembly vote is held over two rounds.
Anyone who wins 50% of the constituency vote in the first round is elected automatically on a minimum turnout of 25%. For most seats, there is a second round run-off involving any candidate with at least 12.5% of the vote. That differs from the presidential vote, where only the top two candidates go through

While the system gives France's 47 million voters the chance to vote for their favourite without tactical considerations in the first round, ultimately it favours the big parties, says Philippe Marlière, professor of French politics at University College London.
That is why the National Front will fare worse than the Socialists, despite polling far better in the first round on 11 June. As in the UK, the winner in each constituency vote takes all.

Who are the ones to watch?

President Macron's team of candidates was scrambled together in days, and includes 266 women and 219 from civil society.
Most are still challenging for a seat in the National Assembly.

There are plenty of colourful characters in the Macron camp, ranging from a retired bullfighter in Arles, Marie Sara, to Rwandan refugee Hervé Berville, éclair entrepreneur Brigitte Liso and horror film producer Laurent Zameczkowski.
One of the better known figures is mathematician Cédric Villani, known for his unique dress sense including large spider brooches. Having won over 47% of the vote in the first round, he looks unbeatable.

Mathematician Cédric Villani (L), junior minister Mounir Mahjoubi and Laurent Zameczkowski (R) are among the new faces fighting for a place in parliament

"They tend to be very middle-class, very white on the whole, and half are absolute newcomers to politics," says Prof Marlière.
Many well known figures have already been knocked out in the first round as French voters look to a new era in politics. Here are some of the key battles to look out for.

Ex-education minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem could be turfed out of her Rhône seat by Bruno Bonnell from LREM
National Front MP Gilbert Collard is neck and neck with ex-bullfighter and LREM candidate Marie Sara
Manuel Valls, the unpopular Socialist ex-prime minister rejected as a candidate by both LREM and the Socialists, is tipped for victory in his Essonne seat
Leading centre-right figure Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet has a real fight on her hands against LREM novice Gilles Le Gendre
FN leader Marine Le Pen is likely to win in the Pas-de-Calais department of northern France where she is facing LREM novice Anne Roquet
Far-left ex-presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is expected to win his battle in Marseille against LREM first-timer, Corinne Versini

What does Macron want to do?

He has a sweeping list of reforms planned to revive France's economy, from simplifying labour laws to lower unemployment and cutting corporation tax from 33% to 25%.
A large mandate will give him the confidence to take on France's powerful unions, but a powerful challenge is likely.

The Macron government wants to make budget savings of €60bn (£51bn; $65bn), so that France sticks to the EU's government deficit limit of 3% of GDP (total output). Public servants would be cut in number by 120,000 - through natural wastage, possibly to soften opposition from France's powerful unions.
What are French President Macron's policies?
He would simultaneously reinvest €50bn and create a separate €10bn fund for renewing industry.

Can Macron's party keep its promises?

No-one yet knows, says Prof Marlière, who sees the role of French president, according to the constitution, as the most powerful political position in Europe.

A book does not a revolution make
"What Macron is doing," he says, "is appealing to the right wing of the Socialists and also to the centre right: that's really about creating something new. Normally you don't put together these two sides."
New parties have made a bid for power in Europe before, in Spain and in Italy. But few have gone into government, other than the left-wing Syriza party in Greece, which has struggled to live up to its campaign promises.
The task for President Macron will be to hold together the left and right elements of his party, while still purporting to hold the centre ground. His first big test will be his planned labour reforms, leaked drafts of which have already angered France's powerful trade unions.

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